View from The Hill: fractured Liberals drown net zero and themselves in a torrent of verbiage

Here is a statistic that tells you what a self-defeating funk the federal opposition is in. On Monday alone, as it wallowed in the crisis over energy policy, its parliamentarians indulged in more than 35 media appearances.

Opposition members  can’t resist talking about themselves, fighting their battles in the glare of the spotlight. In particular, Sky News is an irresistible honey pot.

All this is good for the media, but not for messaging. It amplifies the shambles.

Of course the Nationals, having dumped net zero on Sunday, don’t themselves feel in chaos. They’ve just been the prime cause of the chaos for the Liberals and the Coalition generally.

Here’s where the current state of things appears to stand within the Liberals.

The majority of the parliamentary party has shifted in favour of ditching net zero. Core conservatives wanted this all along. For less ideological Liberals  who’d like to keep net zero as an aspiration, that has become too hard.

But as of Tuesday, the hardcore moderates were fighting on, wanting to retain at least some reference to net zero. This group includes the deputy leader of the Liberals in the Senate, Anne Ruston, Angie Bell, and senators Andrew Bragg, Dave Sharma and Maria Kovacic.

The question is, how far would the moderates be prepared to go to push their point? Would they take their rout lying down, or would any consider resigning from frontbench positions in protest?

With her leadership on the line, Ley is pragmatic, willing to drop net zero altogether for the sake of preserving her position. Her deputy, Ted O'Brien, is in favour of ditching it. (His deputy position is bound to Ley’s survival: if she went, so would he.)

But Ley also has to anticipate whether the moderates would fight to the death. If they did, the fracas could bring her down.

That would pave the way for conservative aspirant Angus Taylor to become leader – a prospect that could stay the hand of the moderates.

The exact timetable for resolving the Liberals’ position remains fluid. The Coalition party room was told on Tuesday the finished review of energy policy by spokesman Dan Tehan was imminent.

Tehan is copping some criticism for not moving faster on the review at an earlier stage and for being overseas, inspecting nuclear facilities in the United States, when the government announced its 2035 emissions reduction target.

The current thinking appears to be that the Liberal Party will return to Canberra to consider its policy before the last parliamentary sitting week, which is at the end of this month.

Alex Hawke, Ley’s numbers man, in comments on Tuesday reflected the move away from net zero.

Asked  what his position was on whether the Liberals should remain  committed to net zero by 2050, Hawke said, “well,  like most of my colleagues, we have always  been concerned about  the cost of net zero. […] The cost  of net zero  is starting to hit  our economy.”

Hawke played down any threat to Ley’s leadership. “Colleagues are minded to land the policy. We’ll do that. […] Sussan will lead us.  There’s no one proposing anything different.”

Victorian Senator Jane Hume, who has previously strongly advocated the retention of net zero, said, “Let’s face it, net zero has become a new form of whether you believe in climate change or not – that’s crazy.”

Asked about Ley’s leadership Hume, who has been critical of Ley on occasion, said, “that’s not an issue”.

She said she “absolutely” had confidence in Ley.

“The most important thing  now, though, is that the leader takes a position on energy policy and does so with a matter of urgency, because we cannot allow this conversation to continue.”

That’s a statement hard for any Liberal to dissent from.