View from The Hill: it’s now Canavan v Joyce after the Nationals opt for the radical leadership option

Matt Canavan was once Barnaby Joyce’s staffer, and later his closest ally and most vociferous spruiker. Not to mention his best political friend.

Now, in selecting Canavan as their new leader, the Nationals have chosen him to spearhead the party’s life-and-death fight against One Nation. Its latest weapon is Joyce, who defected from the Nationals late last year.

Canavan can perhaps thank the surge in One Nation’s vote in recent months for his leadership victory. It’s a direct response to this threat. After the 2025 election, Canavan only received seven votes when he ran against David Littleproud, who quit the leadership unexpectedly on Tuesday.

Canavan is right wing and hard line, but not uniformly or predictably so. He’s not just anti-net zero but aggressively pro-coal. On the other hand, he openly expressed concerns about the United States-Israeli attacks on Iran, which was at odds with the Coalition’s position.

Having formerly worked for the Productivity Commission, Canavan has a good economic background, although the commission would look askance at some of the views he espouses nowadays on economic questions.

He is a strong communicator – his very direct speech cuts through, whether people agree with him or not.

Canavan doesn’t shy away from a fight, and he won’t be inhibited when the battle is against Joyce. He was appalled and outspokenly critical of Joyce’s defection.

Historically, the Nationals have always done best when they have had strong leaders. Canavan can be expected to lead from the front, and it will be interesting to see how the party room, used to Littleproud asking them their view about everything, will find the new regime.

Canavan entered the Senate from Queensland in 2014 and served as resources minister in the Coalition government. In 2020 he resigned from the cabinet to support Joyce’s attempt to dislodge Michael McCormack from the Nationals’ leadership,

Having its leader in the Senate (for the first time) will have its inconveniences for the National Party. On the other hand, Canavan will often be facing off against Pauline Hanson. At the next election he will seek to move to the lower house, especially if, as seems likely, Michelle Landry retires from her seat of Capricornia, where he lives.

What will Angus Taylor think of the choice of Canavan? He will be pleased the Nationals will have a powerful voice and a good campaigner. But Taylor is a conventional economic dry, which Canavan is not. How their differences will work out will be a test for both.

The Nationals have chosen Victorian Darren Chester as deputy. This will be another match with its potential frictions. Chester is on the left of the Nationals. His views on some issues will be a useful counterweight to Canavan’s, but their challenge will be to manage divergences.

Canavan will have to get used to the discipline leadership requires. He previously declined to serve on the opposition frontbench so he could be free to speak and act as he wished.

Canavan hopped into Hanson at his first news conference as leader:

“Identity politics of division that we’ve seen on the left is creeping into the right now. And I was very critical of Pauline’s comments, dividing Australians into different groups, suggesting there are no good in certain groups of Australians. I totally reject that. We are all Australians.

"What unites us as a country is more than what divides us. Even when we have these robust debates, we have a wonderful country with wonderful people from all different backgrounds, religions, etc. And I’m sorry, I worry about where Pauline is.”

Meanwhile Hanson was quick to the draw, tweeting that“Canavan has joined the woke pile on, choosing to attack One Nation instead of opening the door to working together in Australia’s interests”.

Joyce had another take. In what he described as a “first volley” he told Sky News, “I think there’ll be a lot of similarities between Matt, myself, and Pauline. Not so much Darren [Chester]. The trouble is there won’t be the same similarities between Matt, myself, Pauline and the Coalition.

"I know Matt strongly believes in income splitting. […] So do you still believe in income splitting?

"I know that Matt does not believe in net zero nor the Paris agreement. But does he now believe in the Paris agreement?”

Joyce threw out a very cheeky challenge. “Are the Nationals going to be the deputy of the Coalition, or will the Liberals immediately continue to shut them down?

"Because now you’ll have the leader of the Liberal party in the house […] and then it becomes whether it’s Matt or Jane as the deputy of the Coalition in the Senate.”

Joyce says he’s looking forward to the contest with his old mate. “You know, when you play first grade, you want to play with the first graders. That’s how you judge yourself.” The Nationals had been hopeless, he said.

When it was put to him that Canavan was a potent communicator and a smart politician, Joyce quipped, “I trained him well”.

He then pulled himself up. “That’s hubris. I don’t mean that. He trained himself.

"I think the biggest issue is – I know Matt, I know him very well, and he is an exceptional guy and a good fella. But his policy beliefs are just a million miles away from where a lot of the Liberal party are. And to be quite frank, they’re quite a distance away from where Darren is.”