Even though it is not yet official, the 2016 election is all but set for July 2. The election will be a double-dissolution poll on the basis of the Senate’s refusal to pass the government’s bill to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is clearly of the view that an election fought on the matter of union behaviour suits his party’s strategy.
The graphic below shows the marginal seats by state. Three things are immediately apparent:
New South Wales has the largest collection of ultra-marginal seats;
Tasmania also has a crucial mass of very marginal seats; and
the margins on many of these seats tend more towards 2-3% rather than under 1%.
This list shows how difficult it will be for Labor to win the 2016 election.
Authors: The Conversation Contributor