Labor leads government in Ipsos poll

Labor has pulled ahead of the Coalition in the Fairfax Ipsos poll for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister.

The ALP is leading 51-49% on the two-party vote in the poll of 1359, taken Tuesday to Thursday. This is a rise for Labor of two points in a fortnight. Preferences have been allocated according to the flow at the last election. The two-party vote is the same if stated preferences are used.

The result represents a 4.5% swing against the government since the 2013 federal election.

The Coalition primary vote is down one point to 42%, while Labor is up two points to 36%. The Greens have fallen one point to 13%, while others are on 10%, up one point.

Turnbull’s approval has taken a hit. It is down three points to 45%, while his disapproval is up four points to 42%. His net approval is down seven points to plus three.

Bill Shorten’s approval is up a point to 41%, his disapproval has risen a point to 47%, to give an unchanged net figure of minus six.

Turnbull retains a strong lead as preferred prime minister – 49% (up two) to Shorten’s 31% (up one point).

Some 55% believe the Coalition will win, which is down two points, while people overwhelmingly say party policies are more influential in deciding how to vote than the performance of the party leaders (75-14%).

A ReachTEL poll of 2414 conducted for the Seven Network on Thursday night has found the government and opposition tied on a 50-50% two-party vote, based on stated preferences. A week before, Labor led 52-48%. The poll has Turnbull leading Shorten as better prime minister (55.6-44.4%) but voters think Shorten is performing better in the campaign than Turnbull (51.9-48.1%).