Daily BulletinHoliday Centre

The Conversation

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Today and yesterday, the button to distribute preferences was pressed in Victoria, Queensland and NSW. In Victoria, 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 Derryn Hinch were elected, as expected. In Queensland, One Nation surprisingly won a second seat at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, and the winners are 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 One Nation and 1 Green. In NSW, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm was re-elected as expected, making it 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 Green, 1 One Nation and 1 Liberal Democrat.

Combined with already declared results from the other states, the new Senate will have 30 Coalition members, 26 Labor, 9 Greens, 4 One Nation, 3 Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) and 4 Others, out of 76 total seats. The Others are Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania, Family First’s Bob Day in SA, Derryn Hinch in Victoria and Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm in NSW.

The Coalition lost three seats in the Senate, with Labor up one and the Greens down one. One Nation gained four seats, and the NXT gained two. Of the eight crossbenchers in the old Senate, four were re-elected - Lambie, Day, Leyonhjelm and Xenophon. Of the three original Palmer United Senators, only Lambie survived, and John Madigan and Ricky Muir were also defeated.

To pass legislation opposed by both Labor and the Greens (35 combined votes), the Coalition will need the support of One Nation AND the NXT AND at least two of the four Others. This will be difficult, but not as difficult as it would have been had Labor not been upset by Bob Day in SA. Support from the Greens alone will still be sufficient for the Coalition to pass legislation opposed by Labor.

It is also possible that the NXT or One Nation could fragment, effectively becoming Independents. If this happens, the Coalition would have more options to pass legislation.

In Victoria, final primary votes gave the Coalition 4.30 quotas, Labor 4.00, the Greens 1.41, Derryn Hinch 0.79, One Nation 0.24 and Animal Justice 0.23. 4 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 Green and Hinch were certain to win, with the Greens very likely to win a second seat, and the last seat probably going to the Coalition, but with One Nation or Animal Justice some chance.

In the event, the Victorian Senate result was as expected, with 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 Hinch Senators elected. There was a surprise in that Family First, despite starting with 0.15 quotas, was the runner-up, losing to the Coalition’s fifth candidate by almost 27,000 votes or 0.10 quotas.

In Queensland, final primary votes gave the Coalition 4.59 quotas, Labor 3.43, One Nation 1.19, the Greens 0.90, the Liberal Democrats 0.37, the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 0.27 and Family First 0.25. 5 Coalition, 3 Labor, 1 One Nation and 1 Green are certain winners, and Labor was very likely to win a fourth seat. The last seat was seen as most likely to go to the Liberal Democrats, but with chances for the NXT, Family First and One Nation’s second candidate.

In the event, despite starting 0.18 quotas behind the Liberal Democrats, One Nation’s No. 2, Malcolm Roberts, won the last seat, with Labor easily taking 4 seats. Roberts benefited greatly on preferences from other populist right wing parties, such as the Katter Party and Lazarus Team, gaining about 35,000 votes on the exclusions of these parties. The Liberal Democrats gained relatively few preferences, and were excluded before Family First, with Roberts defeating Family First by about 19,000 votes or 0.09 quotas.

In NSW, final primary votes gave the Coalition 4.66 quotas, Labor 4.07, the Greens 0.96, One Nation 0.53, the Liberal Democrats 0.40, the Christian Democrats 0.35 and the Shooters 0.26. 5 Coalition, 4 Labor and 1 Green were certain to win, and One Nation and the Liberal Democrats were seen as likely to win the last two seats.

In the event, One Nation and the Liberal Democrats won comfortably, with Leyonhjelm defeating the Christian Democrats by over 39,000 votes or 0.11 quotas.

I will have more analysis of the Senate, including Senate results tables, how-to-vote card follow rates, and exhaust rates, in the next few days.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Read more http://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-30-coalition-26-labor-9-greens-4-one-nation-3-nxt-4-others-63449


The Conversation


Scott Morrison Virus Announcement

PRIME MINISTER: Good afternoon. Keeping Australians safe - that is the priority of our Government as we deal with what has been an emerging situation with the coronavirus. Each and every day there a...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Closing the Gap Statement to Parliament

Mr Speaker, when we meet in this place, we are on Ngunnawal country. I give my thanks and pay my respects to our Ngunnawal elders, past, present and importantly emerging for our future. I honour...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Interview with Alan Jones

ALAN JONES: Prime Minister, good morning.    PRIME MINISTER: Good morning, Alan.    JONES: I was just thinking last night when we're going to talk to you today, you must feel as though you've ...

News Company - avatar News Company

Business News

Having a mentor is a must to take your business to the next level

Kerstyn Walsh will have the chance to meet her business mentor, LA-based wedding planner to the stars, Lisa Vorce, which will be game-changing for growing Kerstyn’s business Kerstyn Walsh, a self-emp...

Media Release - avatar Media Release

Is Hiring a Corporate Lawyer for Your Company Necessary?

Alternative online legal services like LegalZoom, Incfile, and Rocket Lawyer provides young and budding entrepreneurs access to legal help at a much affordable price without having to hire or meet a l...

Joe Curmi - avatar Joe Curmi

Top 5 Green Marketing Ideas for Your Eco-Friendly Small Business

According to studies, about 33 percent of consumers prefer buying from brands that care about their impact on the environment. This is good news for anyone running an eco-friendly business. It’s a...

Diana Smith - avatar Diana Smith


Travelling With Pets? Here Is What You Should Know

Only a pet parent can understand the dilemma one experiences while planning a vacation. Do you leave your pets at home?  Will you get a pet sitter or someone to take care of them while you are away?...

News Company - avatar News Company

How to Be a Smart Frugal Traveller

You are looking through Instagram, watching story after story of your followers overseas at a beach in Santorini, walking through the piazza in Italy, and eating a baguette in front of the Eiffel ...

News Company - avatar News Company


Graduation is the stage of life when a student receives the rewards of hard work of years. It must have taken sleepless nights and tiring days to achieve the task. Now, as you have received your cov...

News Company - avatar News Company