A Shorten government would ask voters in its first term whether they supported Australia becoming a republic.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten, addressing the Australian Republic Movement’s dinner on Saturday, will seek to elevate the issue by pledging that “by the end of our first term, we will put a simple, straightforward question to the people of Australia: Do you support an Australian republic with an Australian head of state?
"If the yes vote prevails - and I’m optimistic it will – then we can consider how that head of state is chosen”.
He will say that in an ALP government a minister would be given direct responsibility for advancing the debate
The Shorten policy for quick action on a republic contrasts with Malcolm Turnbull’s position, which is that the public will not want the issue back on the agenda until after the Queen’s reign ends.
Labor’s two-stage process – with the first stage a general plebiscite question about wanting a republic, followed by a referendum which would incorporate a model - is designed to maximise the chances of support.
But the issue of the model and the requirements of a referendum – which needs an overall majority and a majority of states to pass – would still remain the difficult hurdle.
The 1999 unsuccessful referendum proposed the president of the republic be chosen by parliament, but it is likely that these days people would want a directly-elected president, a model which raises more issues.
Shorten will say in his speech: “We cannot risk being caught in a referendum like the last one, where Australians were given one vote to settle two questions. When a lot of people voted ‘no’ because of the model, not because of the republic.
"The first, clear question we ask the people should be whether we want an Australian head of state. And the debate should be about why. About our sense of Australia, our history and above all, our future”.
In London recently Turnbull declared himself an “Elizabethan”. In contrast Shorten will say: “I have tremendous regard for the Queen and her service. But I am not an Elizabethan. I’m a Victorian. I’s an Australian”.
He will say he is confident that if Australia became a republic, “Queen Elizabeth would farewell us with the same affection and good grace she has shown every time a Commonwealth nation has made the decision to cut its ties with the monarchy.
"We can vote for a republic and still respect Queen Elizabeth”.
Shorten will acknowledge that the republic issue “isn’t front of mind of everyone, but I don’t buy the argument that we can’t have this debate until every other problem in the nation has been solved.
"In these fractious times, governments age quickly and lead short lives.
"It’s no good hoping for a popular groundswell – we must set a direction and bring people with us, and we have to do it early”.
Authors: Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra