Daily Bulletin

The Conversation

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

More than 7.8 million people voted “yes” to same-sex marriage (61.6% of clear responses) beating the 4.9 million “no” voters (38.4% of responses). But New South Wales had the lowest “yes” vote as a result of western Sydney electorates with high immigrant populations voting against.

A total of just over 12.7 million (79.5% of the electorate) participated in the survey overall.

The ACT led the “yes” vote with 74%, followed by Victoria (64.9%), Western Australia (63.7%), Tasmania (63.6%), South Australia (62.5%), Queensland (60.7%), the NT (60.6%) and lastly New South Wales (57.8%).

The seven highest “no” votes by electorate were all in western Sydney, with “no” winning at least 59% in all seven of these electorates. “No” won 74% in Blaxland, 70% in Watson, 65% in McMahon, 64% in Werriwa, 64% in Fowler, 62% in Parramatta and 59% in Chifley. However, “yes” won 75% in major “no” supporter Tony Abbott’s Warringah.

These seven strongest “no” electorates in Western Sydney also all voted Labor by large margins in the 2016 federal election.

image The Conversation / ABS data, CC BY-ND Overall, 133 of the 150 federal electorates voted “yes”, and 17 “no”, with Blaxland the highest “no” electorate (74%). 12 NSW electorates, three Queensland electorates and two Victorian electorates voted “no”. The closest result was in Bennelong, the seat where a byelection will be held on December 16, where “no” had the most votes by 50.2% to 49.8%. The highest “yes” votes were in the electorates of Melbourne and Sydney (both 84%). Turnout was slightly higher among women (81.6%) than men (77.3%). The youngest eligible voters (18-19-year-olds) participated strongly with a 78.2% turnout, more than for any other age group below 45. If we divide the number of “yes” and “no” responses by the total electorate (just over 16 million), then 48.8% of the overall electorate voted “yes” and 30.5% “no”. While “yes” did not quite win a majority of the overall electorate, this is a very strong result considering the voluntary voting in this survey. Polling in the lead up to the survey results always suggested an easy “yes” victory, and this has been shown to be accurate. Yesterday, Newspoll gave “yes” a 63-to-37 lead, so “no” performed a little better than expected, but there was no major error. A tweet from pollster ReachTEL mocked a Griffith University study that expected “no” to win narrowly. While “yes” won the plebiscite easily, parliament still has to legislate same-sex marriage. Hard-right MPs want protections for religious freedoms, and so the debate over the bill that will be passed could be divisive. However, given the large “yes” victory, I expect a bill to be passed in the final two weeks before parliament adjourns for the Christmas break.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Read more http://theconversation.com/same-sex-marriage-survey-by-the-stats-a-resounding-yes-but-western-sydney-leads-no-vote-87258

Decoding the music masterpieces: Stravinsky's The Firebird

arrow_forward

Which federal MP is spending the most on Facebook advertising? (Hint: it is not Craig Kelly)

arrow_forward

New Zealand has ramped up vaccination rates, but too many people remain concerned about vaccine safety

arrow_forward

The Conversation
INTERWEBS DIGITAL AGENCY

Business News

Top 10 Factors Start-up Investors Are Looking for in 2021-22

Let's face it, investors are fundamentally different from lenders, and startup owners need to know how to provoke investors in funding in their business plans. Unfortunately, sparked by the COVID-...

NewsServices.com - avatar NewsServices.com

7 Reasons Why Logo is Important For Your Construction Business

Owing to the construction business, you need to understand building a brand is very important. People do look for quality, but newcomers look for the brand. If you are in the construction business...

NewsServices.com - avatar NewsServices.com

Why PPC Matters For Small Businesses in 2021

When it comes to PPC advertising, being creative isn't enough to acquire favourable top positions and results. Instead, PPC necessitates extensive study and experimentation and an understanding of...

NewsServices.com - avatar NewsServices.com